Let's talk about the biggest counter-argument to the Halving Cycle theory since the cycle top in October 2025: the Business Cycle. We are tracking the Global PMI, a monthly survey of businesses worldwide that measures manufacturing and service activity. It is a solid macro gauge. The sine waves at the bottom of the chart represent the Halving Cycle theory. This model suggests Bitcoin moves in rhythm around the first Halving date, November 28, creating a 3-year bull market and a 1-year bear market. This theory marks 11 critical highs and lows on the chart, including cycle tops and bottoms, with a 3-month window for each event. Over Bitcoin's 16-17 year history, there has been no major deviation or breakdown in this cycle. Now, compare that to the overall Business Cycle. The correlation with Bitcoin is extremely low. The cycle tops and bottoms appear almost random. From 2022 to 2025, the business cycle stayed nearly flat, while Bitcoin ran a textbook bull market. The Halving Cycle remains alive and effective. The Business Cycle simply is not a suitable replacement model, no matter how you slice it.